香港保單

保誠多重宇宙: 香港保單 保誠 雋富多元貨幣計劃IRR分析

點此或下圖可以連結FB討論串
以下為香港 保誠 雋富多元貨幣計劃 的建議書
(五年期繳)
分別為退保(解約)/身故:

身故賠償:

python code:

# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
"""
Created on Tue May 23 18:57:45 2023

@author: SavingKing

03: 
    j,k合為同一個迴圈(死亡IRR),且使用enumerate
    df使用""當index,以免cash_value,death_insurance
    資料的年度不一致,還可以正確合併
04:
    修正未滿期時的總報酬率計算錯誤
"""
import numpy_financial as npf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import os

cash_value:list=[0,      0,      310100,  492800, 671600,
                 772400, 871500, 1017900, 1070800, 1168100,
                 1255100,1355200,1464900, 1584700, 1714800,
                 1855000,1985900,2169900, 2358700, 2563900]  
#保誠 雋富多元 #1~20年末解約金(),死亡保額()
death_insurance:list=[210000, 420000, 630000, 840000, 1050000,
                      1050000,1050000,1050000,1070800,1168100,
                      1255100,1355200,1464900,1584700,1714800,
                      1855000,1985900,2169900,2358700,2563900]

rate=210/100 #30歲以下 #保誠 
#180/100 if 31~40
#160/100 if 41~50
cash_valueXrate:list = list( np.array(cash_value) * rate )

capital_protection = 8 #8年末保本
increasing_rate = [np.nan]*capital_protection 
#從保本才開始算解約金增加率

for i in range(capital_protection, len(cash_value)):
    increase = cash_value[i]/cash_value[i-1]-1
    increasing_rate.append(increase)

discount = (0)/100 #花旗,星展,華南 
# 樂天10萬回饋2500(2.5%)
# 遠銀百萬保費3.5%
pay:float = -200000* (1-discount) #-60570  #-59358.6
n_years = 5


lisIRR_death = []
for i, value in enumerate(death_insurance, 0):
    if i < n_years: #i=0,1,2
        cash_flow = [pay]*(i+1)+[death_insurance[i]]
    else:
        lis0 = [0]*(i-n_years+1)
        cash_flow = [pay]*n_years+lis0+[value]
    print(f"第{i+1:02d}年末死亡cashflow:",cash_flow)
    irr = npf.irr(cash_flow)
    lisIRR_death.append(irr)


for m,irr in enumerate(lisIRR_death,1):
    print(f"第{m:02d}年末({m+40}歲)死亡IRR:\t{irr:.4%}")

lisIRR_death = [f"{irr:.4%}" for irr in lisIRR_death]

dic={"死亡IRR":lisIRR_death , "": list(range(1,len(death_insurance)+1))}
dfIRR_death = pd.DataFrame(dic).set_index("")
#""當index,以免cash_value跟death_insurance資料不一致
#這樣合併資料還可以正確


lisIRR = []
totReturn = []

for i, value in enumerate(cash_value, 0):
    if i < n_years: #i=0,1,2
        cash_flow = [pay]*(i+1)+[cash_value[i]]
        tot = sum(cash_flow)/abs(sum( [pay]*(i+1) ) )
    else:
        lis0 = [0]*(i-n_years+1)
        cash_flow = [pay]*n_years+lis0+[value]
        tot = sum(cash_flow)/abs(sum([pay]*n_years))
    print(f"第{i+1:02d}年末cashflow:",cash_flow)
    irr = npf.irr(cash_flow)
    lisIRR.append(irr)
    
    totReturn.append(tot)

lisIRRx2 = [] #0歲女其實是*2.1
for i, value in enumerate(cash_valueXrate, 0):
    if i < n_years: #i=0,1,2
        # cash_flow = [pay]*(i+1)+[cash_valueXrate[i]]
        cash_flow = [pay]*(i+1)+[value]
    else:
        lis0 = [0]*(i-n_years+1)
        cash_flow = [pay]*n_years+lis0+[value]
    print(f"第{i+1:02d}年末cashflow X rate:",cash_flow)
    irr = npf.irr(cash_flow)
    lisIRRx2.append(irr)
    

lisIRR = [f"{irr:.4%}" for irr in lisIRR]
totReturn = [f"{ele:.4%}" for ele in totReturn]
increasing_rate = [f"{ele:.4%}" for ele in increasing_rate]
# lisIRR_death = [f"{ele:.4%}" for ele in lisIRR_death]
lisIRRx2 =  [f"{irr:.4%}" for irr in lisIRRx2]


dic = {
    ""           : list(range(1, len(cash_value)+1)),
    "IRR"          : lisIRR,
    "總報酬率"      : totReturn,
    "增加率"        : increasing_rate,
    #"解約金x2.1_IRR": lisIRRx2
    # "死亡IRR"     : lisIRR_death
    }

df = pd.DataFrame(dic).set_index("")

df_concat = pd.concat([df,dfIRR_death],axis=1)
print("\n",df_concat)

cwd = os.getcwd()
exFolder = os.path.join(cwd,"export")
if not os.path.exists(exFolder):
    os.makedirs(exFolder)
xlsx_path = "\\".join( [exFolder,"irr.xlsx"] )
df_concat.to_excel(xlsx_path)

輸出的xlsx:

七年內解約皆為負報酬
死亡IRR 1%~5%
八年保本
之後解約金增加率約8%
算越長IRR越高
20年IRR 5.35%

同樣叫做保誠人壽
香港保誠有IRR超過5%的實力
台灣保誠愛美鑫IRR才4%
因金管會把國人當成次等公民
便以分紅公式太複雜的奇怪理由
強迫下架,
成為僅開賣16天的短命保單
之後若有新商品,
必然IRR更低
才符合金管會的心意
台灣與香港猶如多重宇宙

海外保單當然不受到台灣政府的保障
但我想比美國券商倒閉的風險低多了
至少香港很近,
講中文也會通
也沒看過有人擔憂
美國券商倒閉的問題
本文只為客觀揭露商品IRR
其他風險均應自行考量
若您厭倦了金管會黑手干預
台灣儲蓄險IRR低落
香港保單是您另外的選擇

若想了解IRR 5%的香港保單或其他台灣保單
複委託優惠或YTM超過6%的債券
請在此表單留下聯絡資料:
若您願意贊助我:
機構代號(391,一卡通),帳號:1501823311
FB粉絲團: 儲蓄保險王,
Line@: @wvr5039s,

推薦hahow線上學習python: https://igrape.net/30afN

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