前篇:忠意保險 跨越創富保2 IRR分析
為兩年期繳,
本篇改用五年期繳試算
點此或下圖可以連結FB討論串
以下為香港 忠意保險 跨越創富保2 的建議書
(五年期繳)
分別為退保(解約)/身故:
建議書未考慮其他折扣
依此建議書計算略為低估IRR:
計算IRR之前,
先了解一下這家保險公司
取自維基百科:
忠意保險(Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A.),又稱忠利集團(Generali Group),前稱忠利保險,是義大利的一家保險公司。這家保險公司是義大利最大,世界第三大的保險公司[1],總部位於第里雅斯特[2]。2010年時,忠意保險的收入在世界保險集團中排名第二,僅次於安盛。
python code:
# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
"""
Created on Tue May 23 18:57:45 2023
@author: SavingKing
03:
j,k合為同一個迴圈(死亡IRR),且使用enumerate
df使用"年"當index,以免cash_value,death_insurance
資料的年度不一致,還可以正確合併
"""
import numpy_financial as npf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import os
cash_value:list=[0, 0, 38394, 71792, 397090,
435934, 481903, 534827, 584256, 635230,
692814, 751767, 812016, 873510, 941343,
1005157,1067013,1128868,1190724,1309281]
#忠意人壽 創富保2 #1~20年末解約金(上),死亡保額(下)
death_insurance:list=[100000, 200000, 300001, 400001, 500001,
500001, 500001, 534827, 584256, 635230,
692814, 751767, 812016, 873510, 941343,
1005157,1067013,1128868,1190724,1309281]
rate=210/100 #30歲以下
#180/100 if 31~40歲
#160/100 if 41~50歲
cash_valueXrate:list = list( np.array(cash_value) * rate )
capital_protection = 8
increasing_rate = [np.nan]*capital_protection #12年末保本
#從保本才開始算解約金增加率
for i in range(capital_protection, len(cash_value)):
increase = cash_value[i]/cash_value[i-1]-1
increasing_rate.append(increase)
"""
len(increasing_rate)
Out[24]: 15
"""
discount = (0)/100 #花旗,星展,華南
# 樂天10萬回饋2500(2.5%)
# 遠銀百萬保費3.5%
pay:float = -100000* (1-discount) #-60570 #-59358.6
n_years = 5
lisIRR_death = []
for i, value in enumerate(death_insurance, 0):
if i < n_years: #i=0,1,2
cash_flow = [pay]*(i+1)+[death_insurance[i]]
else:
lis0 = [0]*(i-n_years+1)
cash_flow = [pay]*n_years+lis0+[value]
print(f"第{i+1:02d}年末死亡cashflow:",cash_flow)
irr = npf.irr(cash_flow)
lisIRR_death.append(irr)
for m,irr in enumerate(lisIRR_death,1):
print(f"第{m:02d}年末({m+40}歲)死亡IRR:\t{irr:.4%}")
lisIRR_death = [f"{irr:.4%}" for irr in lisIRR_death]
dic={"死亡IRR":lisIRR_death , "年": list(range(1,len(death_insurance)+1))}
dfIRR_death = pd.DataFrame(dic).set_index("年")
#以"年"當index,以免cash_value跟death_insurance資料不一致
#這樣合併資料還可以正確
lisIRR = []
totReturn = []
for i, value in enumerate(cash_value, 0):
if i < n_years: #i=0,1,2
cash_flow = [pay]*(i+1)+[cash_value[i]]
else:
lis0 = [0]*(i-n_years+1)
cash_flow = [pay]*n_years+lis0+[value]
print(f"第{i+1:02d}年末cashflow:",cash_flow)
irr = npf.irr(cash_flow)
lisIRR.append(irr)
tot = sum(cash_flow)/abs(sum([pay]*n_years))
totReturn.append(tot)
lisIRRx2 = [] #0歲女其實是*2.1倍
for i, value in enumerate(cash_valueXrate, 0):
if i < n_years: #i=0,1,2
# cash_flow = [pay]*(i+1)+[cash_valueXrate[i]]
cash_flow = [pay]*(i+1)+[value]
else:
lis0 = [0]*(i-n_years+1)
cash_flow = [pay]*n_years+lis0+[value]
print(f"第{i+1:02d}年末cashflow X rate:",cash_flow)
irr = npf.irr(cash_flow)
lisIRRx2.append(irr)
lisIRR = [f"{irr:.4%}" for irr in lisIRR]
totReturn = [f"{ele:.4%}" for ele in totReturn]
increasing_rate = [f"{ele:.4%}" for ele in increasing_rate]
# lisIRR_death = [f"{ele:.4%}" for ele in lisIRR_death]
lisIRRx2 = [f"{irr:.4%}" for irr in lisIRRx2]
dic = {
"年" : list(range(1, len(cash_value)+1)),
"IRR" : lisIRR,
"總報酬率" : totReturn,
"增加率" : increasing_rate,
#"解約金x2.1_IRR": lisIRRx2
# "死亡IRR" : lisIRR_death
}
df = pd.DataFrame(dic).set_index("年")
df_concat = pd.concat([df,dfIRR_death],axis=1)
print("\n",df_concat)
cwd = os.getcwd()
exFolder = os.path.join(cwd,"export")
if not os.path.exists(exFolder):
os.makedirs(exFolder)
xlsx_path = "\\".join( [exFolder,"irr.xlsx"] )
df_concat.to_excel(xlsx_path)
輸出結果:
輸出的xlsx檔案:
對比於兩年期繳的跨越創富保2
五年內解約皆為負報酬
五年期繳負報酬的時間更延長了
七年內解約皆為負報酬
死亡則為0利率
八年保本
之後解約金增加率約8%
算越長IRR越高
20年IRR 5.5%
跟兩年期繳的跨越創富保2一樣
海外保單當然不受到台灣政府的保障
但我想比美國券商倒閉的風險低多了
至少香港很近,
講中文也會通
也沒看過有人擔憂
美國券商倒閉的問題
本文只為客觀揭露商品IRR
其他風險均應自行考量
若您厭倦了金管會黑手干預
台灣儲蓄險IRR低落
香港保單是您另外的選擇
推薦hahow線上學習python: https://igrape.net/30afN
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