儲蓄險vs定存IRR大PK:絕對利差與相對利差(續2)

by 儲蓄保險王 · 2016-02-22

先看前一篇:

儲蓄險vs定存IRR大PK:絕對利差與相對利差(續)

當時是以1.51%的定存利率當指標

但央行連續兩季降息,

1.51%也早已灰飛煙滅

三問誰才有利率風險?

真是欲加之罪,何患無辭?

不過最高定存利率仍是

台企銀以1.44%奪冠

此篇又要以新的指標1.44%為標準

另外版上的利率都是以複利IRR為主

當時相對利差也是用複利來算

例如儲蓄險IRR 2%

相對利差=(2-1.44)/1.44=38.89%

其實相對利差該用

年單利或總利息來算較合理

100萬經過1.44%利率,複利滾存6年後本利和

=100*(1+1.44%)^6=108.9571

六年總利息:8.9571,年單利=8.9571%/6

100萬經過2%利率,複利滾存6年後本利和

=100*(1+2%)^6=112.6162

六年總利息:12.6162,年單利=12.6162%/6

相對利差

=(12.6162-8.9571)/8.9571

=40.85%

(儲蓄險六年總利息比定存多了40.85%)

用年單利計算的話,

分子,分母同除以%/6,

相消後仍會得到一樣的相對利差40.85%

較原本用複利IRR去算的相對利差38.89%略高

但隨著年期拉長或利率提高

這個誤差會擴大

所以下表的“單利相對利差”

就是用較合理的新算法去算的

其實看最高的定存利率1.44%

+低估為2%的儲蓄險利率

+不算很長的6年

儲蓄險已有40.85%的相對利差,

六年的時間早就夠儲蓄險盡顯優勢,

年期拉更長只是更突顯儲蓄險的優勢,

想開版之初,只有計算六年IRR,

還有訪客希望多計算更長年期的IRR

當下就回覆,要更多年期的IRR,

將會是比六年更短的年期,

永遠提醒投資人儲蓄險的流動性風險

相對於長於六年的IRR,

投資人更該注意五年內的IRR

負利率幾年?

什麼時候保本,漸有流動性?

什麼時候IRR跟定存相當?

什麼時候IRR擊敗定存?

評估自己的資產

可以承擔怎樣的流動性風險

本金:	100	From AMDHammer.pixnet.net (儲蓄險vs定存IRR大PK)
IRR	6	From AMDHammer.pixnet.net (儲蓄險vs定存IRR大PK)
IRR	年後本利和	差異	絕對利差	相對利差	單利相對利差
1.44%	108.9571	0	0	0	0
2.00%	112.6162	3.6592	0.56%	38.89%	40.85%
2.10%	113.2803	4.3232	0.66%	45.83%	48.27%
2.20%	113.9477	4.9906	0.76%	52.78%	55.72%
2.30%	114.6183	5.6612	0.86%	59.72%	63.20%
2.35%	114.9548	5.9977	0.91%	63.19%	66.96%
2.40%	115.2922	6.3351	0.96%	66.67%	70.73%
2.50%	115.9693	7.0123	1.06%	73.61%	78.29%
2.55%	116.3092	7.3521	1.11%	77.08%	82.08%
2.60%	116.6498	7.6928	1.16%	80.56%	85.88%

本金:	100	From AMDHammer.pixnet.net (儲蓄險vs定存IRR大PK)
IRR	10	From AMDHammer.pixnet.net (儲蓄險vs定存IRR大PK)
IRR	年後本利和	差異	絕對利差	相對利差	單利相對利差
1.44%	115.3699	0	0	0	0
2.00%	121.8994	6.5296	0.56%	38.89%	42.48%
2.10%	123.0998	7.7300	0.66%	45.83%	50.29%
2.20%	124.3108	8.9410	0.76%	52.78%	58.17%
2.30%	125.5325	10.1627	0.86%	59.72%	66.12%
2.35%	126.1474	10.7776	0.91%	63.19%	70.12%
2.40%	126.7651	11.3952	0.96%	66.67%	74.14%
2.50%	128.0085	12.6386	1.06%	73.61%	82.23%
2.55%	128.6343	13.2644	1.11%	77.08%	86.30%
2.60%	129.2628	13.8929	1.16%	80.56%	90.39%

本金:	100	From AMDHammer.pixnet.net (儲蓄險vs定存IRR大PK)
IRR	15	From AMDHammer.pixnet.net (儲蓄險vs定存IRR大PK)
IRR	年後本利和	差異	絕對利差	相對利差	單利相對利差
1.44%	123.9192	0	0	0	0
2.00%	134.5868	10.6676	0.56%	38.89%	44.60%
2.10%	136.5797	12.6605	0.66%	45.83%	52.93%
2.20%	138.6001	14.6809	0.76%	52.78%	61.38%
2.30%	140.6483	16.7291	0.86%	59.72%	69.94%
2.35%	141.6830	17.7638	0.91%	63.19%	74.27%
2.40%	142.7248	18.8056	0.96%	66.67%	78.62%
2.50%	144.8298	20.9106	1.06%	73.61%	87.42%
2.55%	145.8932	21.9740	1.11%	77.08%	91.87%
2.60%	146.9638	23.0446	1.16%	80.56%	96.34%

本金:	100	From AMDHammer.pixnet.net (儲蓄險vs定存IRR大PK)
IRR	20	From AMDHammer.pixnet.net (儲蓄險vs定存IRR大PK)
IRR	年後本利和	差異	絕對利差	相對利差	單利相對利差
1.44%	133.1021	0	0	0	0
2.00%	148.5947	15.4927	0.56%	38.89%	46.80%
2.10%	151.5357	18.4336	0.66%	45.83%	55.69%
2.20%	154.5318	21.4297	0.76%	52.78%	64.74%
2.30%	157.5842	24.4821	0.86%	59.72%	73.96%
2.35%	159.1318	26.0297	0.91%	63.19%	78.63%
2.40%	160.6938	27.5917	0.96%	66.67%	83.35%
2.50%	163.8616	30.7596	1.06%	73.61%	92.92%
2.55%	165.4677	32.3657	1.11%	77.08%	97.78%
2.60%	167.0888	33.9867	1.16%	80.56%	102.67%