躉繳美金儲蓄險中國人壽美鑫(APEUPL)外幣利率變動型終身壽險IRR分析_2020年版

by 儲蓄保險王 · 2020-01-14

建議書由保經業務提供,

高保額折扣如下:

大於1.5萬美金: 0.3% (保費約1.45萬美金~44萬台幣)

大於6.5萬美金: 0.5% (保費約6.3萬美金~189萬台幣)

大於15萬美金: 0.6% (保費約14.55萬美金~436萬台幣)

大於20萬美金: 0.8% (保費約19.4萬美金~582萬台幣)

44萬台幣不算很高的門檻,

即可享有0.3%折扣

以上建議書為0.3%折扣

最低保額3000美金

Let’s cut the shit.

直接看這張保單的IRR

FB: 儲蓄保險王 Line: @wvr5039s 儲蓄保險王

宣告表定保費 32036 折扣解約金
增加率

3.3% 實繳保費 31940 0.3%

年解約金 IRR 總報酬率

1 25432 -20.38% -20.38% 　

2 32089 0.23% 0.47% 　

3 33419 1.5204% 4.63% 　

4 34533 1.9707% 8.12% 3.33%

5 35685 2.2423% 11.73% 3.34%

6 37213 2.5794% 16.51% 4.28%

7 38452 2.6862% 20.39% 3.33%

8 39730 2.7657% 24.39% 3.32%

9 41050 2.8274% 28.52% 3.32%

10 42414 2.8768% 32.79% 3.32%

11 43829 2.9185% 37.22% 3.34%

12 45284 2.9519% 41.78% 3.32%

13 46791 2.9808% 46.50% 3.33%

14 48348 3.0055% 51.37% 3.33%

15 49956 3.0268% 56.41% 3.33%

16 51619 3.0457% 61.61% 3.33%

17 53334 3.0619% 66.98% 3.32%

18 55108 3.0766% 72.54% 3.33%

19 56943 3.0899% 78.28% 3.33%

20 58840 3.1020% 84.22% 3.33%

這張美鑫

短短兩年就保本

三年IRR 1.52%約同美金定存

六年IRR 2.6%

解約金增加率約3.33%

這個數字有何意義呢?

請見: 儲蓄險的流動性

如果你認為區區3000美金,

兩年就保本

這也稱得上流動性風險

請看高費用又課稅又低利的債券ETF

匯費如何造成低利債券ETF

三年仍虧損,

四年剛保本

並且真實地減損長期報酬率

如果你認為六年IRR 2.6%太低

請看債券ETF殖利率一覽表

說不定你正在投資

比儲蓄險利率更低且扣30%稅

還要外扣匯費,價差的債券ETF

如果你不知道當今殖利率就是

債券ETF未來報酬率的最佳預測指標

請見: 只看後照鏡開車的怪老子

如果你不知道海外券商存在倒閉的風險

SIPC只是一個理賠紀錄不良的非營利機構

請見: 海外券商倒閉會如何?

如果你是要特別股或存骨

跟固定收益的儲蓄險比較

多頭年代,猴子都能當股神

你連最基本波動風險都沒搞清楚

跟射飛鏢選股的猴子沒有兩樣

請看班.卡爾森於投資前最重要的事

如何闡述“長期報酬率最低的“現金?

資產配置只看報酬率?

高配息是獲利的保證?

要談投資?怕你的績效沒比我好

儲蓄保險王在TD Ameritrade投資第八年了

歷經英國脫歐，歐債風暴，中美貿易戰……

這些空頭洗禮過

21支股市/REITS全數正報酬

最高的是VTI 117%翻倍有餘

在etoro建立類似TD的投資組合

回測該組合2019年報酬率為24.5%

擊敗許多etoro榜上有名的明星投資人

但投資比儲蓄的人

仍是射飛鏢選股的猴子

中壽美鑫跟美金定存1.55%比較:

FB: 儲蓄保險王 Line: @wvr5039s FB: 儲蓄保險王

宣告 32036 折扣定存利率 Line: @wvr5039s

3.3% 31940 0.3% 1.55% 美鑫勝出

年美鑫IRR 美鑫總報酬率定存總報酬率絕對利差相對利差

1 -20.38% -20.38% 1.55% 　　

2 0.23% 0.47% 3.12% 　　

3 1.5204% 4.63% 4.72% 　　

4 1.9707% 8.12% 6.35% 0.44% 27.94%

5 2.2423% 11.73% 7.99% 0.75% 46.68%

6 2.5794% 16.51% 9.67% 1.14% 70.77%

7 2.6862% 20.39% 11.37% 1.29% 79.35%

8 2.7657% 24.39% 13.09% 1.41% 86.27%

9 2.8274% 28.52% 14.85% 1.52% 92.11%

10 2.8768% 32.79% 16.63% 1.62% 97.23%

11 2.9185% 37.22% 18.43% 1.71% 101.92%

12 2.9519% 41.78% 20.27% 1.79% 106.11%

13 2.9808% 46.50% 22.13% 1.87% 110.06%

14 3.0055% 51.37% 24.03% 1.95% 113.80%

15 3.0268% 56.41% 25.95% 2.03% 117.36%

16 3.0457% 61.61% 27.90% 2.11% 120.82%

17 3.0619% 66.98% 29.88% 2.18% 124.13%

18 3.0766% 72.54% 31.90% 2.26% 127.40%

19 3.0899% 78.28% 33.94% 2.33% 130.63%

20 3.1020% 84.22% 36.02% 2.41% 133.83%

六年絕對利差勝出定存1.14%

相對利差勝出71%

11年絕對利差勝出定存1.71%

相對利差勝出102%

也就是利息是定存的2倍

20年絕對利差勝出定存2.41%

相對利差勝出134%

也就是利息是定存的2.34倍

不同折扣IRR統整在前:

FB: 儲蓄保險王　Line: @wvr5039s FB: 儲蓄保險王

台幣門檻(萬) 582 436 189 44 9

折扣: 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%

年 IRR IRR IRR IRR IRR

1 -19.97% -20.14% -20.22% -20.38% -20.61%

2 0.49% 0.38% 0.33% 0.23% 0.08%

3 1.69% 1.62% 1.59% 1.52% 1.42%

4 2.10% 2.05% 2.02% 1.97% 1.89%

5 2.35% 2.30% 2.28% 2.24% 2.18%

6 2.67% 2.63% 2.61% 2.58% 2.53%

7 2.76% 2.73% 2.72% 2.69% 2.64%

8 2.83% 2.80% 2.79% 2.77% 2.73%

9 2.88% 2.86% 2.85% 2.83% 2.79%

10 2.93% 2.91% 2.90% 2.88% 2.85%

11 2.97% 2.95% 2.94% 2.92% 2.89%

12 3.00% 2.98% 2.97% 2.95% 2.93%

13 3.02% 3.00% 3.00% 2.98% 2.96%

14 3.04% 3.03% 3.02% 3.01% 2.98%

15 3.06% 3.05% 3.04% 3.03% 3.01%

16 3.08% 3.07% 3.06% 3.05% 3.03%

17 3.09% 3.08% 3.07% 3.06% 3.04%

18 3.11% 3.09% 3.09% 3.08% 3.06%

19 3.12% 3.11% 3.10% 3.09% 3.07%

20 3.13% 3.12% 3.11% 3.10% 3.09%

以下將折扣改為0%:

FB: 儲蓄保險王 Line: @wvr5039s 儲蓄保險王

宣告表定保費 32036 折扣解約金
增加率

3.3% 實繳保費 32036 0.0%

年解約金 IRR 總報酬率

1 25432 -20.61% -20.61% 　

2 32089 0.08% 0.17% 　

3 33419 1.4188% 4.32% 　

4 34533 1.8941% 7.79% 3.33%

5 35685 2.1808% 11.39% 3.34%

6 37213 2.5281% 16.16% 4.28%

7 38452 2.6422% 20.03% 3.33%

8 39730 2.7271% 24.02% 3.32%

9 41050 2.7931% 28.14% 3.32%

10 42414 2.8459% 32.39% 3.32%

11 43829 2.8904% 36.81% 3.34%

12 45284 2.9261% 41.35% 3.32%

13 46791 2.9570% 46.06% 3.33%

14 48348 2.9834% 50.92% 3.33%

15 49956 3.0062% 55.94% 3.33%

16 51619 3.0263% 61.13% 3.33%

17 53334 3.0437% 66.48% 3.32%

18 55108 3.0594% 72.02% 3.33%

19 56943 3.0736% 77.75% 3.33%

20 58840 3.0865% 83.67% 3.33%

以下將折扣改為0.5%:

FB: 儲蓄保險王 Line: @wvr5039s 儲蓄保險王

宣告表定保費 32036 折扣解約金
增加率

3.3% 實繳保費 31876 0.5%

年解約金 IRR 總報酬率

1 25432 -20.22% -20.22% 　

2 32089 0.33% 0.67% 　

3 33419 1.5884% 4.84% 　

4 34533 2.0219% 8.34% 3.33%

5 35685 2.2833% 11.95% 3.34%

6 37213 2.6137% 16.74% 4.28%

7 38452 2.7157% 20.63% 3.33%

8 39730 2.7915% 24.64% 3.32%

9 41050 2.8503% 28.78% 3.32%

10 42414 2.8975% 33.06% 3.32%

11 43829 2.9373% 37.50% 3.34%

12 45284 2.9691% 42.06% 3.32%

13 46791 2.9967% 46.79% 3.33%

14 48348 3.0203% 51.68% 3.33%

15 49956 3.0406% 56.72% 3.33%

16 51619 3.0586% 61.94% 3.33%

17 53334 3.0741% 67.32% 3.32%

18 55108 3.0881% 72.88% 3.33%

19 56943 3.1008% 78.64% 3.33%

20 58840 3.1123% 84.59% 3.33%

以下將折扣改為0.6%:

FB: 儲蓄保險王 Line: @wvr5039s 儲蓄保險王

宣告表定保費 32036 折扣解約金
增加率

3.3% 實繳保費 31844 0.6%

年解約金 IRR 總報酬率

1 25432 -20.14% -20.14% 　

2 32089 0.38% 0.77% 　

3 33419 1.6224% 4.95% 　

4 34533 2.0475% 8.45% 3.33%

5 35685 2.3039% 12.06% 3.34%

6 37213 2.6309% 16.86% 4.28%

7 38452 2.7304% 20.75% 3.33%

8 39730 2.8044% 24.77% 3.32%

9 41050 2.8618% 28.91% 3.32%

10 42414 2.9078% 33.19% 3.32%

11 43829 2.9467% 37.64% 3.34%

12 45284 2.9777% 42.21% 3.32%

13 46791 3.0046% 46.94% 3.33%

14 48348 3.0277% 51.83% 3.33%

15 49956 3.0475% 56.88% 3.33%

16 51619 3.0651% 62.10% 3.33%

17 53334 3.0802% 67.49% 3.32%

18 55108 3.0939% 73.06% 3.33%

19 56943 3.1063% 78.82% 3.33%

20 58840 3.1175% 84.78% 3.33%

以下將折扣改為0.8%:

FB: 儲蓄保險王 Line: @wvr5039s 儲蓄保險王

宣告表定保費 32036 折扣解約金
增加率

3.3% 實繳保費 31780 0.8%

年解約金 IRR 總報酬率

1 25432 -19.97% -19.97% 　

2 32089 0.49% 0.97% 　

3 33419 1.6907% 5.16% 　

4 34533 2.0989% 8.66% 3.33%

5 35685 2.3451% 12.29% 3.34%

6 37213 2.6654% 17.10% 4.28%

7 38452 2.7600% 21.00% 3.33%

8 39730 2.8303% 25.02% 3.32%

9 41050 2.8849% 29.17% 3.32%

10 42414 2.9286% 33.46% 3.32%

11 43829 2.9656% 37.92% 3.34%

12 45284 2.9950% 42.49% 3.32%

13 46791 3.0206% 47.24% 3.33%

14 48348 3.0425% 52.13% 3.33%

15 49956 3.0614% 57.19% 3.33%

16 51619 3.0781% 62.43% 3.33%

17 53334 3.0924% 67.82% 3.32%

18 55108 3.1054% 73.41% 3.33%

19 56943 3.1172% 79.18% 3.33%

20 58840 3.1279% 85.15% 3.33%